Music Kit | bbno$, u mad!
7-day forecast validation for the Other category, 16 items (walk-forward, 31 folds)
| Model | Mean abs. error | vs. no change | Folds won | Range coverage (calibrated) | Interval score | Direction accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change (baseline) | 0.0691 | baseline | — | 78.7% | 0.4035 | — |
| Average drift | 0.0695 | -0.6% | 7/31 | 78.9% | 0.4241 | 47.7% |
| AR(1) momentum/reversion | 0.0687 | +0.7% | 17/31 | 79.2% | 0.4179 | 50.6% |
| Market-aware boosted trees (pooled over all items) | 0.0674 | +2.5% | 28/31 | 78.7% | 0.3923 | 58.6% |
Market-aware boosted trees (pooled over all items) has 2.5% smaller errors than “no change” and won 28/31 folds. Errors are on log-price changes; significance is tested on per-date averages with Newey-West standard errors. Range widths are calibrated on earlier folds only; the closer coverage is to 80%, the more trustworthy the range. The interval score rewards ranges that are both narrow and right (lower is better).
30-day forecast validation for the Other category, 16 items (walk-forward, 31 folds)
| Model | Mean abs. error | vs. no change | Folds won | Range coverage (calibrated) | Interval score | Direction accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change (baseline) | 0.1124 | baseline | — | 80.3% | 0.6093 | — |
| Average drift | 0.1147 | -2.0% | 12/31 | 80.5% | 0.5905 | 46.8% |
| AR(1) momentum/reversion | 0.1164 | -3.5% | 14/31 | 80.5% | 0.5912 | 49.2% |
| Market-aware boosted trees (pooled over all items) | 0.1123 | +0.1% | 16/31 | 79.7% | 0.5562 | 50.1% |
No model beats “no change” significantly and consistently (best: Market-aware boosted trees (pooled over all items), t=-1.27, 16/31 folds won). Errors are on log-price changes; significance is tested on per-date averages with Newey-West standard errors. Range widths are calibrated on earlier folds only; the closer coverage is to 80%, the more trustworthy the range. The interval score rewards ranges that are both narrow and right (lower is better).